COP28 & Vatican Conference

Introduced by: Hilary Butler

Charles McNeill PhD reports to the Rotary Club of Bowen Island on his participation at COP28 and at the Vatican Conference on Indigenous Peoples’ Knowledge & Science.  Charles provides a detailed discussion of both events and his talk is illustrated with PowerPoint slides. A question & answer session follows.

As a result of considerable interest in the material presented in this talk to the Rotary Club of Bowen Island, Dr. McNeill wrote two articles.

1. On April 19, 2024 the Bowen Island Undercurrent published Pope Francis continues to support Indigenous Peoples in Vatican Conference — The Indigenous Peoples’ Knowledge and Sciences conference was held at the Vatican in March, by Charles McNeill. You may read the article by clicking on the title in this paragraph.
2. Recently, Dr. McNeill provided Bowen Rotary with a written summary of his participation at COP28. It is presented below.

A Summary of COP28

What Happened at the UN Climate Conference (COP28)
in Dubai last December (2023) and
Where Do We Go From Here?

by Charles McNeill PhD

Dr. Charles McNeill speaks to the Rotary Club of Bowen Island

I spoke on March 25, 2024 to the Rotary Club of Bowen Island on what I saw at the Climate Change “Conference of the Parties” (COP28) — held November 30 to December 13, 2023, in Dubai, United Arab Emirates — and implications for our world and our lives. (See video of that event above.)

This matters because a new EU Earth Observation report shows that 2023 was the hottest year on record since data recording began in 1850.

But rising temperatures is not the only challenge. The latest IPCC Report shows that with each fraction of a degree increase, the frequency of extreme weather events increases dramatically — meaning record-breaking storms, precipitation, floods, droughts, heatwaves, and fires — exactly what we have been seeing all around us.

This helps explain how in June 2021, Bowen and the rest of BC suffered a heatwave that killed an estimated one billion seashore animals: mussels, clams, sea stars and snails.

So, given this climate crisis, what got accomplished to give us hope?

Dr. McNeill at a meeting of Bowen Rotary in Artisan Eats on Bowen Island

COP28 in Dubai, United Arab Emirates (UAE), was the largest COP in history with some 85,000 participants. Notably, the COP decision reached by 198 nations – the “UAE Consensus” – calls for the world to “transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems … so as to achieve net zero by 2050.”  The outcome also included agreement to triple the world’s renewable energy capacity and double its energy efficiency by 2030.

Believe it or not, the decision on fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas) was the first time “fossil fuels” ever appeared in a COP outcome – despite the fact that they account for over 75% of global GHG emissions. Oil and gas interests have previously prevented such direct mentions in COP outcomes so this time key country negotiators — including Canada — stood their ground.

Also, after years of intense debate, a “Loss and Damage Fund” was established to help climate-vulnerable countries deal with climate impacts that go beyond what they can adapt to, such as helping families rebuild their homes after disasters and relocating communities displaced by rising seas.  $700 million was pledged for the fund, a welcome but insufficient amount compared to the $580 billion in climate-related damages to vulnerable countries expected by 2030.

This COP featured the first-ever “Global Stocktake”, Paris Agreement’s process to assess progress every five years and mobilize stronger climate action. The report underscores a persistent “emissions gap,” noting that current climate commitments by countries are on a pathway to a disastrous 2.5 degrees warming.

One encouraging outcome of COP28 was the agreement by 159 countries, covering 80% of the world’s land to the UAE Declaration on Sustainable Agriculture, committing to integrate food and food systems into their climate plans by 2025.  This is a significant breakthrough because food has historically been left out of the COP in spite of the fact that our unsustainable food systems generate at least 1/3 of global GHG emissions (about half of that from livestock) and are driving 80% of biodiversity loss.

In this spirit, happily for me and other vegetarians, the UAE Minister of Climate & Environment ensured that 2/3 of all COP food was ‘plant-based’ for the first time at a COP.

Cities played a larger role at COP28 than any COP before, reflecting the growing understanding of cities as critical climate battlegrounds and partners for action — appropriate since 70% of carbon dioxide emissions come from urban areas.

COP28 saw encouraging action to address methane pollution, a greenhouse gas 20-80 times more powerful than carbon dioxide — and accounting for 30% of the warming since pre-industrial times. Governments, companies and philanthropies announced over $1 billion in new grants, with the goal of mobilizing billions more.

At COP28, Forests continued to receive support through important new partnerships and financing mechanisms to fulfill on the Glasgow Leaders’ Declaration on Forests.

But not all outcomes were positive.

COP28 pushed most finance issues to COP29 where developed countries’ current commitment to provide $100 billion annually will be replaced by a new goal that will need to take into account developing countries’ needs — estimated in the trillions, not billions.

The outcome does not address the need of developing countries for financial support to transition at scale to renewables, which offer the cheapest energy option, but require more initial investment than dirtier options and so high interest rates often put wind and solar out of reach.

Loopholes in the final agreement risk expansion of natural gas production and rely on unproven technology like carbon capture and storage.

Here on Bowen and in BC, we too need to take stronger stands against the short-sighted investments in Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) happening in our own backyards.

There was significant progress outside the formal climate negotiations where a “Parallel COP” of NGOs, youth, indigenous peoples, scientists and business brought tremendous new energy and resources, and it is my sense that this parallel track may be as important as the formal one.

Religious leaders and faith communities had an unprecedented presence and impact on COP28 with the first ever ‘Faith Pavilion’ and with continuous sessions to powerfully promote urgent and effective climate action — including a Faith for Climate Call to Action.

My own work over the past 6 years has focused on engaging and mobilizing religious communities to protect tropical rainforests, so critical to averting the climate and biodiversity crises, and it is encouraging to see faith leaders find their voice on these issues.

The COP28 outcome calls on countries to submit ambitious new national climate plans well ahead of COP30 in 2025. Limiting warming to 1.5 degrees C requires reducing global GHG emissions 60% below 2019 levels by 2035. A tall order. This year’s COP29 in Azerbaijan needs to offer breakthroughs on many of these fundamental issues of implementation and finance that were not resolved at COP28.

Global agreements are essential to set direction but the world’s fate will ultimately be determined by whether countries, communities and individuals play their part. Let’s keep our attention on this issue here on Bowen.